A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
